O impacto do Pix em relação a outros meios de pagamento

Abstract

This paper aims to examine the dynamics between the instant payment system Pix and traditional electronic payment instruments: TED, boleto and debit card. The study investigates whether these explanatory variables have a statistically significant influence on the Pix time series and seeks to identify potential evidence of a substitution effect, whereby increased use of Pix may lead to a decline in the use of traditional payment methods. To this end, an ARMAX (Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous Variables) econometric model is estimated to assess its predictive power in forecasting Pix values based on the three independent variables. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the role of Pix within Brazil’s payment ecosystem, indicating the replacement of conventional transaction methods with agile and more digital alternatives